Strata fits probabilistic models to real exit data — mapping the full outcome space before you commit capital. Probit log-scale distributions. IRR surface analysis. Stage-by-stage ownership simulation. Connect PitchBook, CB Insights, or your own dataset.
Most tools tell you what happened. Strata tells you what's likely to happen — and puts a probability on it. Bring your own data and you're running in minutes.
Most models give you a single IRR estimate. Strata runs 10,000 simulated paths and shows you the full distribution — P10, P50, P90, and mean — so you know exactly what you're betting on before you commit.
P50 IRR of 69%. P90 of 201%. And a long right tail that tells you exactly where the upside lives — and how likely it is.
Most VC analysis relies on point estimates — a single "expected" exit. Strata fits a log-normal distribution to real exit data and shows you the full picture: P10, P50, and P90 outcomes using MLE curve fitting on a probit scale.
The result: you know whether your thesis depends on a median outcome or a tail event — before you wire the money.
The Ownership module runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations from entry through to exit — modelling dilution at every financing stage against calibrated historical distributions. Output is a P10/P50/P90 band for both ownership percentage and investor value at every stage.
Series B (+1.8yr): Ownership P50 5.11% (1.3%–6.0% band) · Inv. Value P50 $19.6M ($2.1M–$70.4M band).
Structured around the way a GP actually works — from evaluating a deal, to benchmarking it against reality, to understanding the market, to managing the fund.
The same probabilistic frameworks used by the natural resource industry to make billion-dollar drilling decisions — adapted for venture capital and calibrated against real market data.
Annual licensing by fund size. Every tier includes full platform access — Map, Model, Own, Data, and Portfolio.
Join the waitlist for early access, founding member pricing, and a private demo before public launch.